Bernanke Supercycles
The frightening possibility that the US economy, and the world with it, remains still bound by a single “cycle” dating back to at least 2007 (and you could even argue 2000 or 1995) brings with it...
View ArticleJapan’s Super QQE Continues To Fail——-Because Its Based On Crackpot Monetarism
At some point in the middle of the last century, economics of money shifted to economics of psychology. When Milton Friedman wrote his 1963 book, A Monetary History, it was an effort that uncovered the...
View ArticleWhat’s Pumping The Stock Bubble——$4.2 Trillion In Corporate Bond Issuance In...
In its 84th Annual Report released last June, the Bank for International Settlements departed from usual central bankish conventions and decried the growing departure from market discipline and even...
View ArticleWhat Comes Next; Part 2, The Looming Transformation
Part 1 is here, the history of defining systemic operation since 1907. The quest over equality or the “right” to impose optimal outcomes is one that cannot go backward. The inevitable failures lead no...
View ArticleWhat Comes Next; Part 1, Useful History of the 20th Century
Value as a foundation seems almost too literal to be an economic or financial concept, but it is perhaps the bedrock association that makes the economic system. We are used to aspects like profits and...
View ArticleCharles Gave On Where We Are Now—-“At The Apex Of Market Stupidity”
In some 40 years of watching financial markets, my dominant emotion has been a mixture of curiosity, amusement and despair. It seems the stock market must have been invented to make the maximum number...
View ArticleThe Long Slump In Durables——Why This Cycle Is Different
Orthodox economic theory assigns recession to some exogenous “shock.” Without it, an economy is supposed to grow indefinitely along its trend or potential baseline so long as NAIRU (non-accelerating...
View ArticleCentral Banks Are Dead Wrong About Money, Stimulus And Most Everything Else
On June 14, the 10-year German bund yield traded briefly below zero for the first time. It was an inauspicious record but one that defines the contradictions at the center of all this economic and...
View ArticleThe Helicopter Has Already Been Tested—–And It Has Failed Spectacularly
Most of what passes for modern monetary policy is nothing more than one assumption piled upon another (and then another, and so on). Taken for granted for so long, rarely are these unproven precepts...
View ArticleThe Real Economy: What The Interest Rate Fallacy Truly Means
Just a little over a year ago, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its purchasing manager index for the services sector for August 2015. Though the level was down slightly from July,...
View ArticleMore Indications of Labor Slowing—-Yellen’s Favorite Index Hits The Skids
The Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) fell to contraction again in August. After rebounding in July for the first positive reading of 2016, the LMCI dropped to -0.7 in the latest...
View ArticleCharles Gave On Where We Are Now—-“At The Apex Of Market Stupidity”
In some 40 years of watching financial markets, my dominant emotion has been a mixture of curiosity, amusement and despair. It seems the stock market must have been invented to make the maximum number...
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